Climate Forecasting at the Leading Edge of Science
The World Climate Service Offers Two Industry Leading Products:
Forecasts and climate analysis tools providing guidance for 1-6 months into the future. The seasonal WCS subscription provides access to a comprehensive monthly report as well as unique and interactive website tools such as model progression visualization and an index analog database. [Click Picture for More Information]
Forecasts and analysis tools focused on a 2-6 week forecast lead time. Subseasonal forecasting is an emerging field that has long been regarded as even more challenging than seasonal forecasting, and demand for actionable subseasonal climate forecast guidance is growing rapidly. [Click Picture for More Information]
We endeavor to provide the world’s most reliable, valuable, scientifically advanced climate forecasts and long-range weather intelligence for commodity trading desks and other entities. We strive for excellence in all aspects of our work.
The World Climate Service is unreservedly committed to ethical business practices and a transparent scientific approach to long-range seasonal climate forecasting.
The emerging field of seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasting demands ongoing research and development while refining existing techniques. The World Climate Service is known for an agile development process and rapid product roll-out.
- The World Climate Service avoids over-reliance on a single forecast tool or method. The complexity of the long-range forecast problem demands a broad suite of predictors and an intelligent system to extract predictability.
Probability and Confidence
- The World Climate Service provides and promotes information about forecast confidence and uncertainty. By embracing a probabilistic approach, WCS clients take advantage of high-probability “forecasts of opportunity”.
- The World Climate Service empowers user decision systems by providing automated data feeds. Quantitative forecasts of industry-specific variables allow clients to make weather-sensitive decisions with precision and confidence.
The World Climate Service Team
John A Dutton
On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]
In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long-range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable”. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/extended-forecasts-are-not-reliable.html Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and illustrates the problem of “poor[…]
One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. The report includes comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal climate, and the forecast is summarized in[…]
The World Climate Service seasonal discussion and forecast for autumn was issued a few days ago, and as always the North Atlantic MSLP pattern featured heavily as an important consideration in the forecast, especially for Europe. Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models typically provides a significant component of the WCS analysis, but it is[…]
In late July, an episode of extreme heat developed over western Europe for the second time in summer 2019, and all-time high temperature records were broken in several countries. Among these, the UK set a new high temperature record of 38.7°C (102°F) in Cambridge on July 25. As seen in the map below, temperatures that[…]
US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]
Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term weather forecasts. Probability forecasts are able to empower quantitative decision systems, because they allow the user to calculate the financial consequences of[…]
The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]
Since 2006, the UN FAO has been using the World Climate Service to help protect food sources in regions vulnerable to desert locust outbreaks.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]