Built upon our decades of climate forecasting expertise and tailored applied scientific research, the World Climate Service offers an information advantage to those who seek reliable predictive climate services to inform trading, business decisions, and climate risk management.
The Science of the World Climate Service is Based on Unique Capabilities
Dynamical and Statistical Prediction
The World Climate Service provides both the dynamical model guidance driving market movements and statistical and analog tools to offer customers an advantage through additional predictive insight. An intelligent combination of both dynamical and statistical forecast information ensures the best path to success in subseasonal and seasonal forecasting.
Unlike traditional deterministic forecast information, a probabilistic forecast empowers users to assess the likelihood of future outcomes while performing quantitative cost-benefit analyses of potential action or inaction. The World Climate Service emphasizes a probabilistic approach to support effective decision-making.
Quantitative Forecast Confidence
Verification of our long-range forecasts demonstrates that events predicted to occur with higher probability do indeed happen more often. This critical insight allows customers to assess climate risks and respond appropriately with greater confidence.
Model Forecast Optimization
We generate statistically reliable forecasts using a process called calibration, which corrects forecasts in real-time by applying machine learning to decades of prior forecasts. Unlike uncalibrated forecasts, reliable forecasts ensure the predicted events occur at the same rate they are predicted to occur.
Transparency Through Predicting and Explaining
The World Climate Service provides transparency through on-demand forecast verification and skill statistics, and our forecast team focuses on both predicting and explaining key climate phenomena and the known influences driving the forecast. Far from being a “black box”, the World Climate Service enables physical insight and paves the way to fundamentally better long-range analysis and forecasting.
Comprehensive Suite of Information
Our customers save time by having a comprehensive suite of climate information at their fingertips. Users can analyze previous climate outcomes, assess current climate conditions, and review subseasonal and seasonal climate forecasts all from within an efficient and easy to use web interface. This comprehensive approach to forecasting continues to be refined based on decades of first-hand forecast experience.